Mythicism in detail (Carrier and Price)

Jesus mythicism, in its current academic form, is most associated with Richard Carrier (On the Historicity of Jesus, 2014) and Robert Price. The thesis: Jesus of Nazareth never existed; Christianity began as a celestial figure cult; biographical detail was added later.

Carrier formalises the case in Bayesian probability, computing a roughly 1 in 3 historicity probability. Daniel Gullotta (Journal for the Study of the Historical Jesus, 2017) demonstrated that Carrier's priors are not defensible, his readings of Pauline material are forced, and his treatment of Tacitus and Josephus dismisses material the mainstream accepts. A 2025 reanalysis returned 99 percent probability of historicity using more representative priors.

Bart Ehrman, who is no friend of Christian apologetics, devoted Did Jesus Exist? (2012) to refuting Carrier style mythicism. Ehrman: "I don't think there's any serious historian who doubts the existence of Jesus." This is consensus across the field, including non Christian historians.

The decisive evidence Carrier has to dismiss: Paul's reference to "James the Lord's brother" (Galatians 1:19), Tacitus and Josephus, and the shape of an early movement claiming a recently crucified messiah in Jerusalem within years. Mythicism's historical case has been weighed and rejected by the relevant specialists.

Reading

• Bart Ehrman, Did Jesus Exist?, 2012.
• Daniel Gullotta, "On Richard Carrier's Doubts," JSHJ 15 (2017): 310 to 346.
• Maurice Casey, Jesus: Evidence and Argument or Mythicist Myths?, 2014.